To get live gold, oil and commodity price, please enable Javascript. google-site-verification: google3e43ae4cb93a5637.html S&P BSE GOLD Oil & Gas: So, how much worse can it get for crude. When do you think crude will bottom-out in terms of both levels and time?

Tuesday 22 December 2015

So, how much worse can it get for crude. When do you think crude will bottom-out in terms of both levels and time?

It is a difficult question, it is definitely conceivable that you can have crude going below USD 30 a barrel, likely West Texas Intermediate (WTI), it is not going to be able to stay there for any sustained period of time, because of the harm that it is going to do to corporate and sovereign producer balance sheets. However, you can get there because cash costs or operating costs are kind of the operandis around USD 30-35 a barrel. But, you also have things such as foreign exchange (FX) depreciation. You just look at the ruble, the Canadian dollar, the peso, the riyal, they are doing some of the work to shield some of the producers. You also got high de-commissioning costs that have also offset some of the initial cash costs. So, you could definitely go through that USD 30 barrel mark. 

When that could happen? 

The first half of next year continues to look the kind of sloppiest period for the oil market, particularly the end of the first quarter, when refinery maintenance is about to start globally, but particularly in Europe and as well in North America. So, if that happens and you start to see crude need to be placed on a tanker, then that is the scenario where you can see oil dip below USD 30, so I do not think we are necessarily at the bottom yet, but we are not going to be able to sustain this level of low prices for that much longer. 

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